The Forward-Looking Analysis portion of the AERTOs Bio-Based Economy project seeks to develop contextual, exploratory analysis that helps the participating research institutes better evaluate their bioeconomy strategies. The general approach has been to build up a framework for thinking about the future and to consult with stakeholders to identify potential issues of particular importance and discuss how they might play out. The analysis takes a 15-20 year perspective, near enough to be relevant to the research and development being done today, but far enough away to allow for a new bioeconomy regime or regimes to have emerged.
The first output of the analysis was the scenario framework, and associated ’pathway narratives’ below. In 2016, the project will also summarize possible ranges for key quantitative variables at the bioeconomy level, and dig deeper into four themes identified by project stakeholders.
The accompanying short texts are intended to explore the implications of the scenario framework. This framework looks at three different ’Dominant Logics’ over three levels, with their intersections creating nine ’scenario pathways.’ The narratives to follow explore these pathways across six ’framework conditions.’ These are speculative and are kept at a general level – the intention is not to produce in-depth, evidence-based scenarios for each pairing, but rather to give a sense of how this scenario framework could inform conditions for more specific scenarios.
The Scenario Pathways: