Bioeconomy: The Scenario Pathways

The Forward-Looking Analysis portion of the AERTOs Bio-Based Economy project seeks to develop contextual, exploratory analysis that helps the participating research institutes better evaluate their bioeconomy strategies. The general approach has been to build up a framework for thinking about the future and to consult with stakeholders to identify potential issues of particular importance  and discuss how they might play out. The analysis takes a 15-20 year perspective, near enough to be relevant to the research and development being done today, but far enough away to allow for a new bioeconomy regime or regimes to have emerged.

The first output of the analysis was the scenario framework, and associated ’pathway narratives’ below. In 2016, the project will also summarize possible ranges for key quantitative variables at the bioeconomy level, and dig deeper into four themes identified by project stakeholders.

20151214 Bioeconomy Pathways

The accompanying short texts are intended to explore the implications of the scenario framework. This framework looks at three different ’Dominant Logics’ over three levels, with their intersections creating nine ’scenario pathways.’ The narratives to follow explore these pathways across six ’framework conditions.’ These are speculative and are kept at a general level – the intention is not to produce in-depth, evidence-based scenarios for each pairing, but rather to give a sense of how this scenario framework could inform conditions for more specific scenarios.

The Scenario Pathways:


4 thoughts on “Bioeconomy: The Scenario Pathways

  1. Pingback: Europe and the Bioeconomy | The Insight Refinery

  2. Pingback: The World and Sustainability | The Insight Refinery

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  4. bartgoes

    I’ve found your analysis highly interesting and especially, I believe it has a much merit realizing such type of analysis due to the high degree of uncertainty for any of the pathways. Taking into account the actual view on sustainability and the bioeconomy, my personal opinion is that while for the RTO’s and the Industry the Scenario Pathways seem realistic, the pathways on “The World and Sustainability” might be optimistic. Obviously this is just an opinion and even though I believe it is extremely difficult to make any type of prediction, I have this deep-rooted conviction that unless drivers such as climate change, resource scarcity and the desire to be independent of petrol producing countries are extremely strong and oblige us to profoundly change economical models, policies and values, companies, governments and investors will prefer to continue business as usual. On the other hand I admit that 15 or 20 years is a long time and possibly changes will come faster than expected, like the better than expected outcome of the summit on climate change.

    In any case, I hereby send you the link of a blog on climate change I came across this weekend, where “experts” demonstrate how climate change will have an negligible effect on the economy (obviously, the thought here is if that is so, it would not be necessary to pay for measures against climate change). In a certain sense they reminded me of the arguments used 15 years ago to demonstrate that climate change does not exist:



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